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Despite the recent correction, and regardless which popular metric you use; PE, Shiller’s CAPE Ratio, or Buffett’s Market to GDP comparison; this is one of the most expensive markets since 1923. The other two were the 1929 and 2000 markets and we know how those turned out. Incidentally, 1923 was the year the “Composite Index” was introduced, the S&P 500′s precursor.The record shows that, while stock prices can continue at elevated levels for a long time, they eventually reverse to the mean. That can happen in one of two ways. Either the market goes sideways for a long time until earnings catch up, or there is a sharp drop to bring prices in line with historical PE ratios – a reversal to the mean. History has shown that investors are not a patient bunch. They will put up with a sideways market for a while, but eventually they will tire of meager returns and put their money to work where they believe will yield greater gain potential. Once that ball gets rolling, the market exits en masse and a severe bear market takes hold. The upshot: there is a big market drop in store.The question is when and was this past correction a hic-up or a prelude to the big plunge. A study of major bear markets indicates the latter is more likely. Indeed, a review of 28-plus -percent market drops since 1923 reveals there is always a preamble to every major bear market. Some folks are under the mistaken impression that stock market crashes occur at market tops. That is far from the truth.The stock market may well be fickle, but providence is kind. It always gives us advance notice of a coming crash, grabbing our attention amidst our complacency with a surprise drop and providing an opportunity to get out before it crashes in earnest. This is shown in the analysis below for each of the following major bear markets (28% decline or more): 2007, 2000, 1987, 1973, 1968, 1962, 1946, 1937, and 1929. Intraday prices and daily closes are only available for the S&P 500 from 1950 on. Therefore, Dow Jones Industrial Average closes were used for the markets before that.2007
The initial top for the 2007 market came July 17 when the S&P 500 had an intraday high of 1555.90. The index would drop the next week and eventually settle to an intraday low of 1370.60 a month later on August 16 – a drop of 11.9%. Henceforth, all highs and lows are intraday unless otherwise stated. The market would climb for seven weeks to reach a market top for the index of 1576,09 October 11, 2007 – 1.3% higher than its previous high. An initial 5.5% dip was followed by a quick recovery to 1552.76 October 31, before succumbing and dropping 10.8% to a low of 1406.10 November 26, 2007. The index would recover to a high of 1523.57 and continue on a series of lower lows and highs until its nadir of 666.79 March 9, 2009 for a 57.7% decline.2000
The 2000 market gave plenty of warning before the Dot.com plunge. The market faltered right after opening the New Year January 3rd. After reaching a high of 1478, the S&P 500 dropped to 1455.22 at the close. It dropped below 1400 the next three days and recovered to 1465.71 – the high January 20, 2000. From there it did a roller coaster ride down to the 1329.15 low of February 25 – a 10.1% drop from its high thus far. The market finally climaxed at 1552.87 March 24, 2000. It would drop precipitously April 14 to a low of 1339.40 – a 13.7% drop – but then slowly recovered to 1530.09 by September 1, 2000, only 1.5% below its all-time high. Thereafter it steadily went down with some sharp drops followed by rallies but only to the downtrend line. The market bottomed at 775.80 October 9, 2002 for a 50.1% decline.1987
The 1987 bear market was a swift one. After vacillating to a high of 337.89 August 25, 1987, the S&P 500 dropped to 308.58 by September 8 – an 8.7% hit. It quickly recovered to 328.94 by October 2, only 2.6% down from its high. It wobbled to a close below 300 October 15 before crashing the next Monday to close at 224.84 – a loss of 20.5% for that day. It would close lower December 4, 1987 at 223.92 but the low point for the move came the day after the plunge, October 20, when it dipped to 216.46 for a loss of 36.0% from the August high.1973
This, along with the 1968 bear market, were part of the mega bear market that spanned 1967 – 1982. The S&P oscillated within the 100 and 110 range for most of the year. It cleared the 110-barrier in late summer only to dip below it again before making its final surge as the year closed. It peaked at 119.79 December 12, 1972 and then dropped 4.3% to 114.63 December 21, 1972. The New Year propelled the index higher reaching a top of 121.74 January 11, 1973 – a 1.6% gain from the previous high. It quickly dropped to 111.85 by February 8 and then proceeded to careen downward over a series of bumps until hitting bottom at 60.96 October 4, 1974 – a 49.9% loss.1968
After an initial drop to start the year, the market climbed steadily from March through November finally topping December 2, 1968 when the S&P 500 maxed out at 109.37. The index dropped to 96.63 by January 13, 1969 (an 11.6% drop), fizzled in its rally coming within 0.43 points of the low March 17, and then rallied all the way up to 106.74 May 14, 1969. After coming within 2.4% of the top it succumbed finally hitting bottom May 26, 1970 at 68.61. That was a 37.3% haircut.1962
The stock market steadily climbed from October 1960 to December 1962 when the S&P 500 topped out at 72.64 December 12, 1962. Then it dipped to 67.55 January 24, 1963 for a 7.0% loss. The index quickly went back to 70 the next week and eked out a small gain the next month finally peaking at 71.44 March 15, 1.7% below the high. Thereafter, the index plunged to 51.35 June 25, 1962 for a 29.3% decline.1946
The market had been on a tear since the latter part of World War II and started 1946 the same way gaining 8% by February. Intraday highs and lows for the S&P 500 were not available for the analysis so, hereafter, Dow Jones Industrial Average closes will be used. The Dow Jones closed at 206.61 February 5, 1946. The index then plunged 10% to close at 186.02 February 26. It quickly recovered its previous high and surpassed it on a bucking horse ride up to 212.5 May 29, 1946 – a 2.9% gain from its previous high. The bumpy ride continued until August when the index reached 204.52 on August 13 and then fell in exhaustion finally closing at 163.13 October 9, 1946 for a 23.2% decline. Despite a number of rally attempts, the market would continue to struggle until February 1948 with a maximum loss of 28%.1937
After a precipitous drop from 1929 to 1932, the market seemed to be on recovery mode until it plateaued in early 1937. The Dow Jones closed at 194.4 March 10, 1937 to mark the end of the uptrend. The index then drifted lower for three months until bottoming June 14, 1937 at 165.51 for a 14.9% loss. It spent the next two months on a steady climb eventually topping at 189.34 August 16, 2.6% below the previous high. That was its last hurrah as the market plunged 49.1% to its 98.95 March 31, 1938 Dow Jones close.1929
Much like the 2000 market, the Big Crash of ’29 gave plenty of warning. After going sideways for the first half of the year, the market went through a 10.0% correction when it swanned from a 326.16 Dow Jones close May 6 to 293.42 May 27. Thereafter, it rose undaunted until reaching the market top close of 381.17 September 3, 1929. It drifted lower, slowly at first, but then gained momentum until reaching a low point Friday, October 4 with a 325.17 Dow Jones close – a 14.7% loss. It made a mad dash effort to recover the next week but was only able to manage a 352.86 close October 10. At 7.4% lower than the September high, this was the lowest percentage close to a previous high of any of the major bear markets. Then again, this was the granddaddy of all bears. Ten trading days later, on October 24, the index closed below 300. It dived Monday, October 28 and again the next day closing at 230.07. The market continued its plummet until eventually reaching bottom July 8, 1932 when the Dow Jones closed at 41.22 for a record 89.2% decline.ConclusionHistorical data shows that every major bear market since 1923 always provided investors with a warning. After seemingly peaking, they went through a significant decline before rising again only to plummet thereafter. In two instances, 2000 and 1929, it gave two warnings; the first a correction months before peaking, and the second after peaking.Declines after the initial peak ranged from 14.9% to 4.3% with an average of 10.8% and a median of 11.6%. In three out of the nine cases, 2007, 1973 and 1946, the second peak was lower than the first. The range was from a loss of 7.4% to a gain of 2.9% with an average of -1.4% median of -1.7%. Taking out the 1929, 7.4% outlier, the average was -0.63% and the median -1.6%. The time between the two peaks ranged from 30 days to 5.4 months with an average of 96.7 days and a median of 93 days.Starting from the premise we are in the beginning stages of a major bear market, and having gone through a 10% correction, what is in store for us? Surveying the data, it turns out we are average. There seemed to be no relationship between the severity of the bear market and the time lapse between the two peaks. However, five out of the six times the market went through a bonafide correction, 10% or more, it took months, between 2.9 and 5.4 months, for the market to top and begin its downturn in earnest. The notable exception was the Crash of 1929, which only took 37 days between the first and seconds peaks. Although there was no consistent pattern for depth of the initial decline and the total decline, it is notable that the four largest initial drops led to declines of 49% or more – a level only achieved by the 1973 bear market after only a 4.3% decline. There is no discernible relationship between the initial decline and second peak level, nor the total decline and second peak level.It could be that Morgan Stanley’s prediction this Monday, that a slowdown may loom starting in the second quarter, may be correct. We have already gone above the -7.4% level from 1929, so it would seem this market does not correlate all that well to that one and the wait to the next decisive peak will be measured in months. Regardless, I would caution all to watch the market’s advance very carefully. If the S&P 500 gets within 2.6% of the 2872.87 January 26 top, i.e. 2798, that is your signal to exit the stock market. No sense being greedy about the last 1 or 2 percent gains and risk losing much more.

Ecommerce also known as Electronic Commerce is the buying and selling of services and products online. What Ecommerce Development creates is a system that permits an online selling business to get their services to the customers. Ecommerce includes all kinds of business ideas from retail shopping, banking, investing, and rentals to personal services such as hair and nail salons.1. Product – Carefully choose the product or services to sell. By entering into an Ecommerce business it is assumed that you have a business in mind.2. Target Consumers – Determine your potential consumers will be. Ecommerce Development is to attract, influence and satisfy the target consumers to buy on your Ecommerce site.3. Web Hosting – Consider buying a domain name then choose a web host that has an Ecommerce Development tools that will be responsible for the SSL capability, uptime, data transfer per month and upgrade values.4. Web Design – Create your Ecommerce website. You can do this if you have skills or simply buy templates or hire a web designer if you have extra money.5. Payment Methods – Make a decision on what method payment your Ecommerce site will prefer. You can choose from many payment methods online such as Paypal or credit card payments. Or you may choose to receive payments via check delivery, cash on delivery or wire transfers.6. Security – Providing a security is one of the main purposes of Ecommerce development. Make it a point to settle your privacy, return and warranty policies as well as money back guarantees if you prefer to have one.7. Shopping Cart – The most evident part of Ecommerce development is the use of shopping cart software. By using an online shopping cart, customers are able to view items for sale, select quantity of items and the item they want. After shopping is done, customers will receive or view the summary of the transaction they made.Ecommerce Development can be confusing and at times be complicated. But don’t fret, start it small and simple and stay calm and focused. Below is another list of quick ideas on your Ecommerce development.• Customize and configure leading applications and transactions
• Customize email marketing strategies
• Integrate product shipping, payment and securitySecurity with EcommerceThe hype of the Ecommerce before was feared by customers. But due to the fast and increasing improvements of technology, many have been comfortable buying online. Credit card companies have helped the Ecommerce business become a successful industry by guaranteeing credit card holders no liability in fraudulent charges.

We are all familiar with newspapers, magazines, coupons, and billboards. Let us examine how the trend of direct mail and print advertising is taking an ever-increasing back seat to online advertising.In order to reach a specific customer, you would select a particular type of print mail advertising. For example, if you wanted to target someone driving home everyday, you would pay for an expensive billboard campaign. This is a costly type of advertising, but how many customers does it reach? Do you survey customers when they walk into your business and see if they got off the exit based on the billboard ad? If you did not ask the customer how they found you, then how do you know if you should continue to pay for that pricey billboard investment?Everyone knows the coupon clipper. So where would you advertise to get their attention? Of course, the Sunday paper, and perhaps you might even consider the back of grocery store receipts. Coupon clippers are everywhere, and there are many direct print advertising companies who can provide you with various services. Have you ever purchased something from a Val Pak coupon, or a coupon from a post card you received in the mail? Most likely, yes.Then we have magazines. If you are looking to reach customers who might be interested in workout machines, the possibilities for your print and direct mail advertising is endless. Do you have a local, national, or global customer audience for which you would like to sell your products?Your choices would be the local newspaper in the health and fitness section, or large ads in the proper placement in certain sections of the newspaper. You could also advertise in national magazines to reach customers in the United States, or even a global magazine, to reach customers all over the world. You could place classified, banner, or article ads in Muscle and Fitness, or even Maxim.What does offline advertising have to do with online advertising? Everything.The mentality for the majority of business owners is still stuck in the print mail era. More and more business owners are losing customers locally, nationally, and globally, because they believe their potential customers find them through direct mail, offline advertising methods. They spend more and more on these efforts, and eventually go out of business. They will forever be puzzled as to why all of their efforts did not prove to be financially fruitful.In the year 2007, over 70% of the United States alone uses the Internet to find local, national, and global products or services. If you try explaining this to local business owners, they look at you like you are actually lying and only trying to make a buck from them!This is no joke. I have a local web site and spent $75,000 building and marketing it just for our community. Business owners are losing customers, so I walked door-to-door in over 105 degree heat to let them know their customers are actually looking for them online and almost every business owner completely blew me off!I offered the most inexpensive web site advertising with an amazing, highly targeted customer audience, and practically no one wanted to advertise online. Honestly, I was disgusted with these business owners, because my efforts and financial investment were enormous. I cannot get that time back, but my education was invaluable. I am very happy this venture took place.One thing I have learned over the years in working with clients and potential business clients is that as soon as I hear they are waffling about paying for Internet web sites, SEO, AdWords, and hundreds of hours of my valuable time and expert marketing efforts, I let them go–quite easily.There is no hard selling anything. After I explain the facts to business owners, they either get it, or they do not. And you move on to an owner who gets it, and is willing to pay you for your expensive education, time, hard work, and honest, ethical marketing skill sets put into their online advertising.So what are your online advertising options? I am glad you asked.Let us look at some of the many ways you can advertise online, and then let us look at whether or not these ways are actually paying off for business owners.Without looking at the YES, NO, or POSSIBLY categories toward the bottom, see how well you would fair in using online advertising to get more customers.Which would you choose?- Web Site (basic, no SEO)- web site (flash with moving images, pictures, and AdSense, no SEO)- web site (with proper title; header tags; related meta name description; limited, relevant key words; includes proper on page SEO build, but no online, content related and keyword rich articles with the proper density)- web site (with proper title; header tags; related meta name description; limited, relevant key words; includes proper on page SEO build, includes content related and keyword rich articles with the proper density)- web site (with proper title; header tags; related meta name description; limited, relevant key words; includes proper on page SEO build, includes content related and keyword rich articles with the proper density, and AdSense advertising)- video advertising throughout the Internet on the major search engines (pay per click services, or membership site)- banner advertising throughout the Internet on the major search engines (pay per click services, or membership site)- image advertising throughout the Internet on the major search engines (pay per click services, or membership site)- text ads throughout the Internet on the major search engines (pay per click services, or membership site)- link exchange directories- FFA (free for all) directory submissions- article writing content submitted to relevant categories on reputable directories- search engine submission of your web site to thousands of directories- coupon web sites- putting your web site link on a friends’ site, or anyone else you ask who will put a link to your web site on theirsAs you can see, the list above is not all-inclusive, but it gives you the major online advertising venues in which you may or may not be able to get traffic for your business.I will break this list down with a summary of which you should use, should not use, or might use (if you use them correctly)Yes – Definitely!- web site (with proper title; header tags; related meta name description; limited, relevant key words; includes proper on page SEO build, includes content related and keyword rich articles with the proper density)- web site (with proper title; header tags; related meta name description; limited, relevant key words; includes proper on page SEO build, includes content related and keyword rich articles with the proper density, and AdSense advertising)- article writing content submitted to relevant categories on reputable directories (but be very careful here!)No – Absolutely Not!- Web Site (basic, no SEO whatsoever)- web site (flash with moving images, pictures, and AdSense, no SEO whatsoever)- FFA (free for all) directory submissions- putting your web site link on a friends’ site, or anyone else you ask who will put a link to your web site on theirs (no, no, no!)- search engine submission of your web site to thousands of directories (new technology and algorithm changes, know what you are doing before you submit anywhere!) This is in the NO and POSSIBLY category because you can hurt your efforts if you do this wrong.Possibly – Using these correctly could be rewarding, but using them incorrectly could cost you every penny you have and still not get you any customers- web site (with proper title; header tages; related meta name description; limited, relevant key words; includes proper on page SEO build, but no online, content related and keyword rich articles with the proper density)- video advertising throughout the Internet on the major search engines (pay per click services, or membership site)- banner advertising throughout the Internet on the major search engines (pay per click services, or membership site)- image advertising throughout the Internet on the major search engines (pay per click services, or membership site)- text ads throughout the Internet on the major search engines (pay per click services, or membership site)- search engine submission of your web site to thousands of directories (new technology and algorithm changes, know what you are doing before you submit anywhere!) This is in the NO and POSSIBLY category because you can hurt your efforts if you do this wrong.- coupon web sitesHow did you do? Which type of online advertising would you have chosen?As you can see, the choices are mind boggling, and all of your options have not been listed. These are your meat and potato, primary online advertising choices.Building a web site takes knowledge, education, and experience. SEO (search engine optimization) is critical to your business, just as print advertising once was 10 years ago.Using Google AdWords pay per click services are an increasingly effective way to get targeted traffic to your web site within 15 minutes after your ad goes live. But beware of companies and individuals who set you up with a campaign that will bleed you dry financially. Get a PPC Expert who can show you their client’s successful results and compare their prices and offer to other pay per click services.